NBA cup semifinals any thoughts

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XavierLA

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Saturday night double headr in Vegas for the NBA Cup semifinals. Both games at T-Mobile Arena.

East Semi: Knicks vs Magic
Line opened Knicks -4 now seeing -4.5 on most books. Magic won East Group B going undefeated, beat Heat 117-108 in quarters. Knicks took down Raptors 117-101 but that's not exactly elite competition.

West Semi: Thunder vs Spurs
Thunder -10.5 (opened -9.5, moved to -10.5 on heavy action). After that 138-89 demolition of the Suns I'm struggling to see how Spurs keep this within 11. That was the worst loss in Suns franchise history and Thunder's 16th straight win.

Spurs did upset Lakers 132-119 withuot Wemby, and Stephon Castle went absolutely nuclear with 30pts/10reb/6ast. But can he repeat that against OKC's defense? Looking at the numbers, Thunder are 24-5 ATS this season and covering by an average of 6.8 points. Their defensive rating is 104.3 (2nd in NBA) while Spurs are allowing 112.8 ppg. Thunder also 7 deep with guys who can score - they had 7 players hit double figures against Phoenix.
Leaning Thunder -10.5 and maybe Magic +4.5 as a hedge. Thoughts?
 
@XavierLA that 49 point margin was historic. SGA had 28 and 8 assists but honestly didn't even need to go hard in the 4th. Holmgren, Williams, Dort all stepped up. Thunder depth is the difference here. Spurs played 7 guys in double figures against Lakers which is great, but OKC does that every night AND plays elite defense.
Got Thunder -10 at -105 on FanDuel yesterday before the line moved. Feeling good about it.
 
East game way more interesting imo. Magic's defense is legit - held Heat to 108 and that's WITH Miami's home court. Franz Wagner and Paolo both cooking this year, averaging like 23-24 ppg each. Knicks have more star power but this isn't a gimme. Taking Magic +4.5 on Bet365 at -110
 
imagine betting double digit spreads in single elimination tour basketball and thinkin you're smart. variance will destroy you even when you pick the "right" side. spurs have nothing to lose, okc might tighten up if game close in 4th
also everyone here blindly trusting one blowout against worst suns team in decade. sample size of one game genius analysis what can i say
 
goldkingcoiner said:
imagine betting double digit spreads in single elimination tour basketball and thinkin you're smart. variance will destroy you even when you pick the "right" side. spurs have nothing to lose, okc might tighten up if game close in 4th
also everyone here blindly trusting one blowout against worst suns team in decade. sample size of one game genius analysis what can i say
Click to expand...
It's not one game though. Thunder are 24-1 on the season with point differential of +13.2 per game. They've covered 24 of 29 games. Last 5 games they've won by: 31, 19, 14, 49, 11. Average margin 24.8 points.
Spurs are good but they're not in the same tier. Even without the Suns game the numbers support Thunder big
 
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